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How Will the Electorate Actually Look on Election Day?

To followers of this presidential election, looking at the horse race can feel like a roller coaster. When viewed from certain angles and in certain perspectives, it looks like President Obama is a...

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Do Debates Move the Needle?

One of the most anticipated events of every presidential election cycle are the debates. In recent years, they have become institutionalized, but they are a relatively new phenomenon. The first was the...

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Knocking Off the King

Defeating an incumbent president is a rare feat Mitt Romney has the chance to do something that doesn’t happen very often—defeat an incumbent president. There are only two real examples of this in...

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Decoding the Exit Polls

Exit polling has been one of the top ways to analyze election results.  They are used to determine how key segments of voters cast their ballot in a given election.  They can help give a rough idea of...

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Seven Counties to Watch on Election Night

Looking for some shortcuts when it comes to projecting which candidate has the edge Tuesday night? Once returns start coming in, turn your focus to these seven counties—they will be small scale...

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The Buckeye State in Focus

The somewhat shocking decline in Ohio turnout affected both Obama’s and Romney’s bases this election, but with Romney needing to erase the 262,000-vote margin that Obama had in 2008, there were simply...

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The Democratic Urban Surge

Democrats are still gaining strength in urban areas, and it had a major impact in 2012. Ever since the New Deal, the Democratic Party has been known as the party of big cities. Perhaps the most basic...

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The Obama Coalition

The 2012 presidential election was a hard fought contest between two well-funded candidates.  During and after the election, many believed it to be the most important election in their lifetime.  There...

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The Politics of Top Tax Rates

The agreement reached this month to permanently settle income tax rates has been viewed by Democrats (and some conservative activists) as a watershed moment that has finally ended the post-Reagan...

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The Consistent Vote-Splitting Pattern

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, political scientists formulated what they considered the most basic fact of American politics at the time. To them, Republicans had a “lock” on the White House and...

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